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Inflation has improved dramatically since the Federal Reserve launched its aggressive rate hikes in 2022, but the housing market\u2019s affordability crisis hasn\u2019t gone away and may even renew inflationary pressure.<\/p>\n
Housing inventory is still tight, and while mortgage rates are well below year-ago highs, they have climbed in recent weeks. According to Mortgage News Daily<\/em><\/a>, the latest 30-year fixed rate was at 6.68%, up by 0.53 percentage point from a month ago.<\/p>\n That\u2019s as the start of the Fed\u2019s rate-cutting cycle has failed to trigger the sustained drop in borrowing costs that prospective homebuyers had long hoped for. In fact, mortgage rates may stay<\/a> about where they are for a while as strong economic data and caution among Fed officials dampen the outlook for future easing.<\/p>\n Mortgage giant Freddie Mac<\/a> echoed that view in its latest housing market report<\/a> on Friday, saying it sees mortgage rates slipping \u201cvery gradually over time, with potential volatility as economic news may surprise the market.\u201d<\/p>\n Such incremental improvement won\u2019t provide much of a boost to the housing market either as inventory stays constrained and homebuyers sit on the sidelines while waiting for mortgage rates to drop further, the report added.<\/p>\n There have been some signs that the lock-in effect<\/a> is waning a bit as rates drop, putting more supply on the market, but that\u2019s not enough to meet high demand\u2014meaning home prices will keep rising, Freddie Mac predicted.<\/p>\n To be sure, the outlook for the overall economy looks positive, as the Fed\u2019s half-point rate cut will boost consumer spending and credit, it said.<\/p>\n \u201cHowever, while inflationary pressures have been declining, there are potential upside risks to inflation,\u201d the report warned. \u201cOne area where inflation could resurge is housing inflation in an environment where the fundamental mismatch of supply and demand remains a major challenge for the housing market.\u201d<\/p>\n Any re-acceleration in inflation could further diminish expectations for more relief from the Fed. The most recent consumer price data showed inflation was stickier than expected last month<\/a>, making another jumbo-size rate cut unlikely. <\/p>\n And given that housing costs account for a large chunk of the range of expenses that go into official inflation readings, more upward pressure on that end could result in outsized effects on the overall data. <\/p>\n Continued strength in the economy and labor market may also leave less wiggle room for prices elsewhere, if housing inflation rebounds. Some analysts have even said that the U.S. will not only avoid a recession but also a \u201csoft landing\u201d slowdown, with the economy instead powering through to \u201cno landing<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n As the housing crisis drags on, Americans are feeling trapped<\/a>. Over a third (36%) of homeowners report feeling stuck in their house and unable to move, according to new\u00a0research<\/a>\u00a0by Edelman Financial Engines. This rises to nearly 50% for homeowners under 50, who are mostly made up of Gen Z and millennials. <\/p>\n