{"id":293747,"date":"2024-11-16T19:40:30","date_gmt":"2024-11-16T19:40:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/newhampshiredigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/11\/16\/how-high-will-bitcoin-go-heres-what-prediction-markets-say\/"},"modified":"2024-11-16T19:40:30","modified_gmt":"2024-11-16T19:40:30","slug":"how-high-will-bitcoin-go-heres-what-prediction-markets-say","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/newhampshiredigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/11\/16\/how-high-will-bitcoin-go-heres-what-prediction-markets-say\/","title":{"rendered":"How high will Bitcoin go? Here&#8217;s what prediction markets say"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <br \/>\n<br \/><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/img-assets\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/GettyImages-2184362847-e1731779167380.jpg?w=2048\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Prediction markets had a breakout moment <a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/2024\/11\/06\/who-will-win-the-election-prediction-markets-donald-trump-surge-kamala-harris\/\" target=\"_self\" class=\"sc-93594058-0 fowfrQ  \" aria-label=\"Go to https:\/\/fortune.com\/2024\/11\/06\/who-will-win-the-election-prediction-markets-donald-trump-surge-kamala-harris\/\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/2024\/11\/06\/who-will-win-the-election-prediction-markets-donald-trump-surge-kamala-harris\/\" rel=\"noopener\">during the presidential election<\/a>, when they proved to be more accurate than most opinion polls. <\/p>\n<div>\n<p>So with various cryptocurrencies soaring since Donald Trump won the election, maybe prediction markets can accurately answer the question, \u201cHow high will Bitcoin go?\u201d<\/p>\n<p>On the crypto-based <a href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/markets\/crypto\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"sc-93594058-0 fowfrQ  \" aria-label=\"Go to https:\/\/polymarket.com\/markets\/crypto\" rel=\"noopener\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/markets\/crypto\">Polymarket<\/a>, where the so-called <a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/2024\/11\/06\/polymarket-whale-won-40-million-betting-on-trump\/\" target=\"_self\" class=\"sc-93594058-0 fowfrQ  \" aria-label=\"Go to https:\/\/fortune.com\/2024\/11\/06\/polymarket-whale-won-40-million-betting-on-trump\/\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/2024\/11\/06\/polymarket-whale-won-40-million-betting-on-trump\/\" rel=\"noopener\">French whale<\/a> netted a massive post-election windfall, bettors have various options for Bitcoin, which is currently trading at about $91,000.<\/p>\n<p>For a contract on what price Bitcoin will hit in November, the odds are 72% that it will reach $95,000. The price with the next highest odds is $105,000 at 23%, then $110,000 at 14%.<\/p>\n<p>A separate contract that asks if Bitcoin will be above $90,000 on Nov. 22 shows 60% odds, while yet another contract asking if Bitcoin will reach $100,000 in November only has a 42% chance.<\/p>\n<p>On the <a href=\"https:\/\/kalshi.com\/live\/cryptohttps:\/\/kalshi.com\/live\/crypto\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"sc-93594058-0 fowfrQ  \" aria-label=\"Go to https:\/\/kalshi.com\/live\/cryptohttps:\/\/kalshi.com\/live\/crypto\" rel=\"noopener\">prediction market Kalshi<\/a>, a contract that asks how high Bitcoin will get before 2026 shows 52% odds for $125,000 or above and 44% odds for $150,000 and above.<\/p>\n<p>If prediction markets aren\u2019t your thing, and you prefer a forecast from a more conventional Wall Street analyst, there\u2019s Fundstrat Global Advisors cofounder Tom Lee.<\/p>\n<p>Among the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2023-12-20\/wall-street-bulls-outperformed-the-likes-of-wilson-kolanovic-in-2023\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"sc-93594058-0 fowfrQ  \" aria-label=\"Go to https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2023-12-20\/wall-street-bulls-outperformed-the-likes-of-wilson-kolanovic-in-2023\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">forecasters surveyed by Bloomberg<\/a>, his stock market call in 2023 turned out to be\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/2023\/12\/15\/small-cap-stocks-could-rise-50-percent-next-year-tom-lee-fundstrat\/\" target=\"_self\" class=\"sc-93594058-0 fowfrQ  \" aria-label=\"Go to https:\/\/fortune.com\/2023\/12\/15\/small-cap-stocks-could-rise-50-percent-next-year-tom-lee-fundstrat\/\" rel=\"noopener\">the most accurate<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>As for Bitcoin, he said in March that it could hit $150,000 by year-end. While that looks less likely now with just a month and a half left in the year, <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/SquawkCNBC\/status\/1854864153187365179\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"sc-93594058-0 fowfrQ  \" aria-label=\"Go to https:\/\/twitter.com\/SquawkCNBC\/status\/1854864153187365179\" rel=\"noopener\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/SquawkCNBC\/status\/1854864153187365179\">Lee told CNBC<\/a> last week that \u201csix figures\u201d is still possible before the end of the year with more gains in 2025 in 2026.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI think now because post-halving, Bitcoin is becoming a lot more relevant, and I think maybe the regulatory overhang is diminishing, there\u2019s a lot of upside from here,\u201d he explained.<\/p>\n<p>Bitcoin has already soared 32% so far in November alone and has more than doubled this year. To get to $100,000, it would have to climb another 10%. <\/p>\n<p>But there are signs that the post-election rally is stalling as the stock market notched a losing week. Still, key components of the \u201cTrump trade\u201d are riding high, like <a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/company\/tesla\/\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"sc-93594058-0 fowfrQ  \" aria-label=\"Go to https:\/\/fortune.com\/company\/tesla\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Tesla<\/a> stock, Treasury yields, and the dollar.<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, Quinn Thompson, the founder of the crypto hedge fund\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/crypto\/2024\/04\/02\/hedge-fund-crypto-lekker-maple-guggenheim-institutional-prices\/\" target=\"_self\" class=\"sc-93594058-0 fowfrQ  \" aria-label=\"Go to https:\/\/fortune.com\/crypto\/2024\/04\/02\/hedge-fund-crypto-lekker-maple-guggenheim-institutional-prices\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Lekker Capital<\/a>, told\u00a0<em>Fortune<\/em> this past week that he\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/crypto\/2024\/11\/12\/bitcoin-close-breaking-90k-rally-trump-crypto-prices\/\" target=\"_self\" class=\"sc-93594058-0 fowfrQ  \" aria-label=\"Go to https:\/\/fortune.com\/crypto\/2024\/11\/12\/bitcoin-close-breaking-90k-rally-trump-crypto-prices\/\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/crypto\/2024\/11\/12\/bitcoin-close-breaking-90k-rally-trump-crypto-prices\/\" rel=\"noopener\">optimistic Bitcoin will attain the $100,000 milestone soon<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI feel good that we hit it by year-end,\u201d he said. \u201cVery possible by end of month, but we\u2019ll see.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><br \/>\n<br \/><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/crypto\/2024\/11\/16\/how-high-will-bitcoin-go-btc-forecast-prediction-markets-polymarket-kalshi\/\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Prediction markets had a breakout moment during the presidential election, when they proved to be more accurate than most opinion polls. So with various cryptocurrencies<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":293748,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[170],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-293747","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-finance"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/newhampshiredigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/293747","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/newhampshiredigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/newhampshiredigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newhampshiredigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newhampshiredigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=293747"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/newhampshiredigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/293747\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newhampshiredigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/293748"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/newhampshiredigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=293747"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newhampshiredigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=293747"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newhampshiredigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=293747"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}