March Madness is a time for upsets and Cinderellas, but it’s tough to predict where the surprising results will come from. Let’s try to crack the code with five bold predictions for the 2025 NCAA Tournament.
1. A 15 seed will upset a 2 seed
No. 15 seeds are just 11-145 in the NCAA Tournament, but three of those wins have come in the last four years. The most likely candidates this year are Bryant (vs. Michigan State) and Omaha (vs St. John’s), which both face 2 seeds that struggle to shoot the ball.
Michigan State (30.8 percent) and St. John’s (30.4 percent) rank 328th and 338th, respectively, in the country in three-point shooting percentage. One of these 15 seeds can pull off the upset with a hot shooting performance.
2. None of the 2 seeds will make the Elite Eight
As good as the 1 seeds are this season, the 2 seeds all have glaring weaknesses. As we just mentioned, Michigan State and St. John’s don’t shoot the three-ball well enough to make a deep run. As for Alabama, it relies too heavily on three-pointers and doesn’t shoot them well enough (35.0 percent) to keep up with its volume (29.8 attempts per game). The Crimson Tide’s 350th-ranked scoring defense is also a huge red flag.
Tennessee is the biggest threat to reach the Elite Eight, but UCLA, Kentucky and Illinois pose serious threats in the bottom of the Midwest region.
3. North Carolina will make the Sweet 16
College basketball fans and experts spent the last few days bashing the Selection Committee for giving North Carolina an at-large bid. Well, the Tar Heels shut everyone up with a dominant 95-68 win against San Diego State in the First Four.
UNC might not have the Quad 1 wins on its resume, but Hubert Davis’ squad ranks ninth in the country in Bart Torvik’s T-rank over the last month. This is one of the hottest offenses in college basketball, and the motivation to prove the doubters wrong is clearly there.
